In the previous newsletter I highlighted the levels of Japanese FDI into Australia, with two key messages: 1) the increasing importance of Japanese investment as US levels decline; 2)the diversification of the investment into so many new areas. One highlight is the renewed attraction of Australia for construction, real estate and housing companies from Japan. So many new entrants have arrived in Australia and many of the incumbents are expanding their operations and partnerships.

The basis for this trend is the resurgence of growth in Australia’s population since the end of COVID restrictions. In the 12 months to 31 March 2023, Australia’s population grew by 2.2% to 26.5 million people, an increase of 563,000. Net overseas migration accounted for 454,00 or 81% of this increase and natural increase was 108,000. In the future net migration will probably be slightly lower and natural increase slightly higher, so the trends for population increase remain strong. The demand for housing and real estate remains strong despite higher interest rates, as will further demand for significant infrastructure development.
Japanese companies are well placed to contribute in these sectors.

While much of the focus and commentary on Australia-Japan relations is justifiably on investment trends and geopolitical/security enhancement, it may come as a surprise that bilateral merchandise trade has also greatly increased. In the five years from 2018 to 2022 Australian exports to Japan have grown by 210% from $56 billion to $118 billion. Japan’s share of Australia’s merchandise exports has grown from 16% to 20%, while China’s has fallen from 34% to 30%. Australia’s trade surplus with Japan in 2022 was $94 billion, while it was $64 billion with China. As the bilateral relationship continues to thrive, it also forms a solid foundation to work together to face challenges and opportunities in our region.

Exports to China have taken centre stage for many years but Japan remains a growing and critical market for Australia, especially now that structural vulnerabilities in China’s economy are starting to show their impact on lower economic growth. The impact is far reaching, as Australia, Japan and ASEAN will feel the effects of slowing Chinese demand. ASEAN GDP in 2022 was US$3.7 trillion and is projected to be more than US$5 trillion by 2027, but some uncertainty will now increase with China’s trends. ASEAN’s economic and technological evolution will be necessary ingredients for the growth in new demand and the diversification of international supply chains.

In 2023 Japan and ASEAN celebrated 50 years of cooperation and have announced a new concept of “co-creation”, which emphasises the commitment as equal partners to develop sustainable futures by utilising human resources, innovation infrastructure development. For example, the Asia DX initiative, which will focus on digital innovation and transformation and the Asia GX or green transformation that emphasises the circular economy.

Australia and Japan can complement their assets, capabilities and capital in this regard. The “co-creation” blueprint complements Australia-Japan cooperation in related areas, e.g., the QUAD, which includes a strong emphasis on cyber resilience, critical infrastructure and undersea cable connectivity. Similarly, the AUKUS agreement has a significant Pillar Two, which has a focus on AI, cyberspace and undersea cables. Although Japan is not a member of AUKUS, the alliance and quasi-alliance status between Australia, Japan and the USA will support cooperation in a wide range of critical areas that will support region-wide resilience. Long-term resilience and growth for Australia and Japan depends on factors far beyond the bilateral relationship, so cooperation beyond our borders is necessary.

Author: Manuel Panagiotopoulos

Managing Director, Australian and Japanese Economic Intelligence